Risk and Economic Decision Analysis and Project Risk Management
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Risk and Economic Decision Analysis and Project Risk Management |
| John Schuyler | Tim Nieman | |
| Bibliography | Partial list of clients | |
| Site map | External links | |
| Key concepts | Courses and Consulting | |
| Evaluation Tips | Planning PressTM | |
| Site Terms of Use |
Courses and assistance in decision analysis for maximizing value under uncertainty.
Course comparisons and selection guide
"Risk and Decision Analysis" brochure (pdf file)
Utility Elicitation Program
UEP helps you define your best personal or corporate risk policy as a utility function.,
Login (link below) to access UEP and several whitepapers and tutorials.
• Free usage for most people
• UEP 5 will have new features and improved documentation (mentioned below).
UEP now has only Success and Failure NPV outcomes and a probability of success.
The pending major upgrade to UEP version 5 adds ways to expand potential outcomes
to better represent uncertainty. Additions include options for:
1. one continuos NPV outcome distribution -or-
2. a probability of success (ps) with separate continuous
NPV distributions for Success and Failure.
Assessing a certainty equivalent (CE) or minimum acceptable probability of success (ps) "experiment" produces a value for the risk tolerance coefficient, (RTC or r). This single parameter represents an individual's or a corporation's risk policy. With practice and feedback, we you should converge on a risk policy r suited to you, personally, or for the organization that you represent.
Log in by clicking the link to use the—present version—of the Utility Elicitation Program (UEP) . The UEP login page, at the left, has a link to a 36-minute risk policy tutorial and UEP demonstration video.
Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 3.0.6 Edition
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 3.1.0 Edition
Portal to book supplements using Retrieval Codes found in the books
Decisions with Risk: What Every Executive should know about Decision Analysis
(e-book under development)
| Index to Evaluation and Modeling Tips, Books and Articles |
| Bayes' Rule and Covid-19 Tests (pdf file) |
| Is modern economic theory wrong? Check out "Ergodicity and Investments" |
| Ergodicity and Investments, Part 1 |
| To maximize your enjoyment, carefully condider the problem |
| presented in Part 1 before downloading and reading Part 2. |
| Ergodicity and Investments, Part 2 (pdf file) |
Additional Tips
Google Earth photo map to John's home/office:
15492 East Chenango Ave, Aurora, CO, 80015-1703, USA (Aurora is a Denver, Colorado suburb)
Google Satellite photo (The street at the left
is South Chambers Road, and the major diagonal northwest/southeast street is Smoky Hill Road).
We are in the second
cul-de-sac on the left below the two tennis courts, pool, and lake.
© John R. Schuyler. Jan. 23, 2026. All rights reserved.
