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Selected Bibliography
Papers, Articles, and Books by John Schuyler and friends
Decisions with Risk: What Every Executive Should Know about Decision Analysis.: Forthcoming as an e-book featuring hover ToolTips (revealing names and short descriptions), links to Glossary entries, and links to Breakout discussions with more detail and examples.
Current Course Notebooks, 1990-present, PetroSkills, LLC.: in collaboration with Timothy Nieman:
Petroleum Risk and Decision Analysis
Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling
Economic Evaluation of Prospects and Producing Properties
Decision Notes and Bayes' Club, occasional e-letters and newsletters, c. 1995-present, Decision Precision®, Aurora, CO, typically about 4 pages each. Current notes about decision analysis applications, evaluation tips, practice problems, literature and software.
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects 3.1 Edition, 2018, wholly rewritten and expanded, Planning Press, about 491 p. plus online supplements.
"Simple Risk Policy as a Utility Function," presented at AACE International Conference and Exposition, San Diego, California, USA, June 24-27, 2017, and included in 2018 AACE International Transactions. RISK-2878.
"Credible Estimates Require Probabilistic Models," presented at AACE International Conference and Exposition, San Diego, California, USA, June 24-27, 2017, and included in 2018 AACE International Transactions. EST-2877.
Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration 3.0 edition, 2015, by Paul Newendorp and John Schuyler. About 550 pages plus online supplements.
"What is the Value of Competency and Competency Assessment?" presented at SPE Annual Technical Conference and Expositions, Proceedings, Oct. 2013. Coauthored with J. Ford Brett and Timothy J. Nieman. Revised and republished in SPE Economics and Management, Jan. 2014. SPE 166308-PA.
"Bid Optimization with Monte Carlo Simulation," SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, Dallas, Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE paper no. 130141, March 8-9, 2010
"Optimizer’s Curse: Removing the Effect of this Bias in Portfolio Planning," with Tim Nieman, 2008 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, April 1-3, Dallas, Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE paper no. 107852. Revised and republished in the peer-reviewed SPE Projects, Facilities and Construction Journal, Mar. 2008.
Decision Analysis Collection, 2007, Planning Press, Aurora CO, 372 p. A compilation of selected papers and articles, important concept summaries, and extensive glossary, 1989-2007; was available only with course materials.
"Forecasting Shareholder Value: The Missing Objective in Balanced Scorecards," 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference, Proceedings, May 1-3, Denver. View/download
"Balanced Scorecard Linked to Shareholder Value: Making the Numbers Count," 2005 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, April 4-5, Dallas, Texas.
"Portfolio Management: What is the Contribution to Shareholder Value?," (subsequently revised), 2003 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, 5-8 April, Dallas, Texas.
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects (2nd Edition), 2000, Project Management Institute. Over 18,000 copies sold. Incorporated another six installments to the PM Network series:
#13: "Exploiting the Best of Critical Chain and Monte Carlo Simulation," #14: "Optimizing Project Plan Decisions,"#15: "Capturing Judgments About Risks and Uncertainties," #16: "Relating Risks," #17: "Project Risk Management by the Numbers," and #18: "Expert Systems Guidance in Project Planning and Risk Management"
"Quantifying OBM-Added Value," 1998, Appendix 3, in Open Book Management and Company Performance, by Jill Maxwell, Liz McKeever, and Ryan Weeden, National Ccenter for Employee Ownership, Oakland, California, 112 p.
"Probabilistic reserves definitions, practices need further refinement," 1999, Oil & Gas Journal, May 31, 1999, pp. 64-67. [OGJ6]
"Probabilistic Reserves Lead to More Accurate Assessments,"," 1998, SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Proceedings, scheduled for New Orleans, Louisiana, Sep. 27-30 (cancelled due to Hurricane Georges). SPE paper no. 49032. Submitted for peer review and possible publication in an SPE journal. OnePetro.org offers a revised version of the paper. [ATC]
"Best Practices in Project Evaluation and Influence on Company Performance," 1997, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, March 16-18, Society of Petroleum Engineers, Dallas, SPE paper no. 37945. Revised and the featured management article in Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT), August, 1997. [HEES4]
"Investment Decision Making," 1997, chapter in Westney, Richard E., Ed., The Engineer's Cost Handbook, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York [ISBN 0-8247-9796-5].
Decision Analysis in Projects, 1993-1995, invited tutorial series, PM NETWORK, monthly magazine of Project Management Institute, Upper Darby, PA..
- 1993: 1. "Expected Value: the Cornerstone" Jan. 1993, p. 27-31 v7 n1. 2. "Optimal Decision Policy" Apr., p. 31-34 v7 n4. 3. "Decision Trees" Jul., p. 31-34 v7 n7. 4. "Value of Information" Oct., p. 19-23 v7 n10
- 1994: 5. "Monte Carlo Simulation" Jan., p. 30-36 v8 n1. 6. "Other Probabilistic Techniques" Apr., p. 20-24 v8 n4. 7. "Project Modeling I" Jul., p. 26-32 v8 n7. 8. "Project Modeling II" Oct., p. 39-43 v8 n10
- 1995: 9. "Judgments and Biases" Jan., p. 34-38 v9 n1. 10. "Utility and Multi-Criteria Decisions" Apr., p. 22-28 v9 n4. 11. "Stochastic Variance" Jul., p. 11-14 v9 n7. 12. "Summary and Recommendations" Oct., p. 23-28 v9 n10.
"Rational Is Practical: Better Evaluations through the Logic of Shareholder Value," 1995, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings March 27-28, Society of Petroleum Engineers, Dallas, SPE paper no. 030066. [HEES3]
"Slaying the Capital Budget Constraint," 1993, presented at Society of Petroleum Engineers' Hydrocarbon Economics & Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, March 29-30, Dallas, Texas, pp. 219-228, SPE no. 25842. [HEES2]
"Credible Projections Now Require Decision Analysis," 1992, Cost Engineering, March, p. 15-19.
"Simulation Demonstrates Economics of Minnelusa Polymer Floods," 1991, with Steven M. Hochanadel, Oil & Gas Journal, v. 89, n. 21, May 27, p. 90-93.
"A new look... Decision Analysis Becomes a Powerful Tool," 1990, The Planning Forum Network, March, p. 2.
"Decision Rules Using the EMV Concept and Attitude Toward Risk: An Improved Approach," 1990, Oil & Gas Journal, Jan. 15, p. 55-58.
"Using a Simulation Model to Plan Property Acquisitions: Evaluation vs. Bid Practices," 1990, Oil & Gas Journal, Jan. 8, p. 78-81.
"How the Monte Carlo Pricing Model Beats the Odds," 1989, Journal of Pricing Management, v. 1, n. 1, Winter 1990, p. 15-24.
"Modeling an Exploration Program: Insensitivity to Prospect Ranking Criteria," 1989, Oil & Gas Journal, Dec. 25, p. 140-142.
"Applying Expected Monetary Value Concept: How Many Prospects is Enough?," 1989, Oil & Gas Journal, Dec. 11, p. 87-90.