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John Schuyler

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Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 3.1 Edition

by John Schuyler, August, 2018


Planning Press, Aurora, CO, USA
RDAP 3.1 Edition is available from
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 3.1 Edition
ISBN-10:  171901426X   ISBN-13:  978-1719014236
approximately 485 pages, paperback, list price US$39.95
Kindle edition, full-page format suited to larger-screen devices, list price US$29.95

Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects book cover

What are the characteristics of successful managers? Surveys consistently show decision-making ability at or near the top of the lists. Perhaps no management activity is more important. Surprisingly, little training investment attends to developing this important skill. In Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Schuyler presents the approach and principal techniques of decision analysis to help the reader realize faster, more confident, and better decisions.

This book is a complete rewrite of the best-selling prior editions. Online supplements include models, additional readings, videos, and the Utility Elicitation Program. The methods are proven and accessible. And the techniques are applicable to all types of project decisions, estimates, feasibility analyses, and buy/sell valuations. With practice, decision analysis is easily integrated into a professional's daily problem-solving approach.

Making good decisions over the long term increases the probability of meeting your objectives. Those using decision analysis can sleep well at night knowing that they have made the best possible choices under the circumstances. Reading Decision Analysis in Projects is your first best choice.

Alphabetical List of Key Topics

  • @RISK with Microsoft Project
  • Artificial Intelligence in PM
  • Competitive Bidding and Winners Curse
  • Bayes Rule and Equivalents
  • Critical Chain with Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Decision Analysis Process
  • Decision Policy, Three Pillars
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Expected Value
  • Earned Value with Simulation
  • Judgments, Biases, and Correlation
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Portfolios, Optimizer’s Curse
  • Probability Distribution Types
  • Probability Rules
  • Project Controls
  • Project Models
  • Project Portfolios and Optimization
  • Project Risk Management
  • Project Risks Catalog
  • Risk Matrix (improvements)
  • Risk Policy as a Utility Function
  • Risk Register and Uncertainty Register
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Tail Estimate Bias
  • Value of Control, Flexibility, and Robustness
  • Value of Information and Bayes’ Rule
  • Variance Analysis, Stochastic Variance

Also available:  Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 3.0 edition
by Paul Newendorp and John Schuyler (2014)

Errata, Key Revisions, and Expansions

Errata and follow-on notes for the 3.1 Edition

Errata and follow-on notes for the 3.0 Edition

Errata and follow-on notes for the 2nd Edition

Errata Decision Analysis in Projects (first edition)

Copyright © 1996-2020 by John R. Schuyler.  All Rights Reserved

Page last revised 28-Oct-2020