Estimated publication in late-August, 2018

Short questions at chapter ends (for university classes using this book).

Other embellishments include: The "Critical Chain Simulation" video, enhanced
Utility
Elicitation
Program
, a

Version 3.0 used “task” in most places in deference to Microsoft Project.

"Activity" is much prevalent in the project management literature (with tasks being a possible component).

Excepting Chapters 20 (MS Project) and 24 (CCPM modeleling), the new 3.1 edition generally uses “activity.”

Page 27, Table of EVM Variables and Formulas

The formula for the last item should be *SAC* = *ET* + *STC*

Page 113, 132, and 133. *SEM* confidence interval

The *standard error of the mean*, (*SEM*), describes how much error is in the *EMV* calculation and __not__ the confidence range for the outcome *NPV*. More MCS trials improves the EV calculation precision (as 1/sqrt(no. trials)), but the *NPV* frequency distribution doesn’t change much.

Page 163, *VII* calculation. The $92k amount is correct, but the two labels are reversed.

Setting the inspection cost to $0 and no delay, EV *NPV* for Inspect Used Plant is -$4367k.

The Used Plant option without inspection EV *NPV* is -$4459k.

*VII* is the improvement, -$4367k − -$4459k = $92k.

Page 174,Project Risk Management, Project Budgeting, Differences

The Base Plan practice is unsettled, in my opinion. Here is my revised understanding of common practice:

Base Plan is the sum of optimistic activity estimates

Cost Estimate = Base Plan + Contingency

where Contingency = sum of the risk EVs (from the Risk Register)

While Base Plan + Contingency may be a useful approach for budgeting and management, it is *not* my recommendation for estimation.

Instead, a **full stochastic model does away with contingency**. The analysis aim is an *unbiased* estimate using the EV concept.

Page 328, Project Progress: The stochastic earned value chart shows a confidence envelope extending the Planned Value (*PV*) Curve. This is incorrect. *PV* does not change unless there is an approved scope change.

Page 366, One-at-a-Time (variance analysis): This method DOES NOT show or include *stochastic variance*. This method itemizes individual variable *deterministic variance*. Compare the total of these to the *NPV* when all variables are set to their actuals (or revised assessments). That difference is the total of *joint variances*.

Please contact me if you have questions or concerns about anything you have read in the book. E-mail:

Copyright (C) 2016-2018 by John R. Schuyler. Last updated 17-Aug-2018.

Press your browser's <back> key to return.