PETROLEUM RISKS and DECISION ANALYSIS
Course Instructor
John Schuyler
Foundation
Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, and planning
analysts
You Will Learn
จ How to approach all three types of evaluation problems; ranking, valuing, and optimizing
จ How
to use decision trees and
จ To think and model probabilistically
จ How to measuring shareholder value and handle incorporate other criteria (such as HSE: health, safety and the environment)
จ About decision policy and popular criteria which work and which do not work well with probabilities
จ How to use probability distributions and basic statistics, useful in project evaluation
จ About low-cost PC software tools for decision analysis
จ How to value additional information (e.g., geophysical survey) and control (e.g., higher safety margins)
Decision-making is perhaps the most important skill for a successful business or career. Good technical and business deciญsions are based on superior analyses of costs, benefits, and risks of projects. Attendees learn pracญtiญcal, systematic ways to analyze decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Participants learn how to design and solve decision trees
and payoff tables, popular decision modeling techญniques. These methods proญvide
clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Judgments
about risks and uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions.
There are no prerequisites other than a general familiarity with the geologic, engineering, and business aspects of the petroleum industry. Participants learn how many real-world problems can be solved with a sciญentific or business hand calculator (which they bring to the course), three reference textbooks, and the 700+ page course notebook. The emญphaญsis is on practical techniques for immediate application.
จ Decision
Tree Analysis: Calculation procedures; valuing additional
information and control; advantages and limitations contrasted with
จ
จ Decision Criteria: Value measures; decision rules; decisions with multiple objectives; discrediting intuition; advantages of the decision analysis approach; dealing with capital constraint and risk aversion; portfolios
จ Modeling the Investment Opportunity: The ten-step Decision Precisionา problem-solving process; real options analysis; operations, earnings and cash-flow model structures; modeling tools, including influence diagrams (briefly); deal structures; sensitivity analysis; scenario analysis
จ Basic Probability and Statistics: Four fundamental probability rules, including Bayes theorem; types and uses of distributions applicable to the petroleum industry, especially exploration; gamblers ruin concept; alternate ways to represent correlation between variables; common misconceptions about probabilities
จ Risk Analysis and Expected Value Concept: Quantitative estimates of risk and uncertainty; capturing expert judgments; recognizing and avoiding biases and errors
จ Analysis Methods in the Petroleum Industry: Characteristic risks of exploration, field development, EOR, transport, and plant investments; risk mitigation methods
จ Implementing Decision Analysis: Interpreting decision analysis results from a management perญspective; facilitating team analyses; low-cost computer tools; establishing credibility in the analysis
จ Team
Workshop: Evaluate a multi-pay prospect using trees and the
probability concepts learned in the course; solving again using
Examples
Participants are encouraged to bring examples from their work for discussion. Please contact OGCI Training if you wish to submit a problem in advance for possible use as a class exercise.
2004-5
SCHEDULE and TUITION 5
DAYS
Oct.25-29, 2004
.
US$2,200
Oct.24-28, 2005
.
US$2,450
About the Instructor
JOHN SCHUYLER, CAM CCE CMA CMC CPIM PMP and PE, is a decision
analyst and evaluation engineer. He founded his consulting practice, Decision
Precision, in 1988. He has over 29
years of experience in analysis, consulting, and management, primarily in the
energy industry. He has presented almost 220 courses in 25 countries since
1990. His focus has been in feasibility analysis, appraisals, corporate
planning, and evaluation software development. He was vice president and
petroleum engineer with Security Pacific National Bank, planning and evaluation
analyst and (later) manager of business systems for Cities Service Co., and seญnior
management consultant with a national accounting firm. John is a member in
eight professional organญiญzaญtions and is a frequent author and speaker on
modern analysis practices. He holds a BS and an MS in mineral-engineering
physics from Colorado School of Mines and an MBA from the
All courses are available for in-house presentation to individual organizations. In-house courses may be structured the same as the public versions or tailored to meet your requirements. Special courses on virtually any petroleum-related subject can be arranged specifically for in-house presentation. For further information, contact our In-House Training Coordinator at one of the numbers listed below.
Telephone 1-800-821-5933 toll-free in
Or 1-918-828-2512
Facsimile
1-918-828-2580
E-Mail inhouse@ogci.com
How to Contact PetroSkills, LLC/ OGCI Training, Inc.
Telephone 1-877-541-2500 or 1-800-821-5933 toll-free in
1-918-828-2540
for PetroSkills
1-918-828-2500 for OGCI Training
Facsimile 1-918-828-2580
E-Mail registrations@ogci.com
World Wide Web www.petroskills.com or www.ogci.com
Address