"The model is the centerpiece of a credible evaluation or forecast."


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

This section catalogs "tips": short descriptions of books, articles, techniques and ideas useful in making better business and personal decisions.

The tips are organized into the following categories:

Page generated 01-06-06 05:55

DECISION MAKING

EMERGING EVALUATION TECHNOLOGIES

EVALUATION TECHNIQUES

MARKETS AND TRADING

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

COMPLETE TIPS LIST



 

 

TIPS ON DECISION MAKING:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 109
Tip 108
Tip 107
Tip 106
Tip 105
Tip 100
Tip 098
Tip 097
Tip 096
Tip 095
Tip 094
Tip 093
Tip 090
Tip 089
Tip 086
Tip 078
Tip 077
Tip 076
Tip 074
Tip 073
Tip 072
Tip 070
Tip 069
Tip 063
Tip 060
Tip 059
Tip 057
Tip 053
Tip 052
Tip 047
Tip 044
Tip 043
Tip 042
Tip 041
Tip 040
Tip 038
Tip 035
Tip 034
Tip 027
Tip 024
Tip 023
Tip 020
Tip 019
Tip 016
Tip 015
Tip 013
Tip 011
Tip 008
Tip 006
Tip 004
Tip 002
EMV and Shareholder Value
Decision-making styles of women vs. men
Our Final Hour: A Scientist"s Warning by Martin Rees
Justifying Training with Performance Improvement
The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Risk, Uncertainty and Investment Decision-Making in the Upstream O&G Industry
"Portfolio Management: What is the Contribution to Shareholder Value?"
"Evolving Inventions" by John Koza, Martin Keane and Matthew Streeter
Markets, Mobs & Mayhemby Robert Menschel
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb
Jack: Straight from the Gut by Jack Welch
John"s advice to young people for a great career and happy life
Good to Great by Jim Collins (exceptional business management book)
"Why So Many People Made So Many Brain-Dead Investments"
"America, the beautiful carbon sink" by Peter Huber
Reverse Auctions
"Making Decisions with Precision" (optimization software)
The Greatest Inventions of the Past 2,000 Years
Re-Creating the Corporation by Russell Ackoff
Managing by the Numbers by Chuck Kremer, et al.
"Process Control with Intelligence: A Unified Approach"
"Lessons Learned Through Process Thinking and Review"
The Accidental Theorist by Paul Krugman
PowerPoint: an Inferior Solution ... for me
Seeing Tomorrow: Rewriting the Rules of Risk
The McKinsey Way by Ethan Raisel
The Ostrich Factor: Our Population Myopia
Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions
Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration
"The Perfect Decision", Inc. interview with Ralph Keeney et al.
The Enlightened Manager"s Guidebook by Abraham Maslow
"Management"s New Paradigms" by Peter Drucker
"Of Mice and Economics" -- People resist a major precept of economics
Billions & Billions by Carl Sagan
Company Value Added by OBM
"The End of Cheap Oil"
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
5-Steps in the Creative Process
Participative Management (OBM)
Best Practices database
Why Flip a Coin: The Art and Science of Good Decisions
"Evaluation of Vision Correction Alternatives for Myopic Adults"
"Shareholders Aren’t Everything"; Built to Last; Three Cheers for Capitalism
Decision Analysis in Projects available
"Creativity in OR/MS: Creativity-Enhancing Strategies" Interfaces
Wise Choices: Decisions, Games, and Negotiations
The Ford Pinto Case: A Study in Applied Ethics, Business and Technology
"The New Religion of Risk Management"
Modeling for Learning Organizations
Making Hard Decisions by Robert Clemen
Jan-06
Nov-05
Feb-05
Feb-05
Feb-05
Nov-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Oct-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Jan-05
Aug-05
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Jul-00
Jul-00
Jun-00
May-00
Apr-00
Nov-99
Sep-99
Sep-99
Jun-99
May-99
Apr-99
Feb-99
Oct-98
Oct-98
Sep-98
Aug-98
Aug-98
Jun-98
Mar-98
Feb-98
Dec-97
Aug-97
Aug-97
Jul-97
May-97
Feb-97
Jan-97
Dec-96
Oct-96
Aug-96
Jul-96
Jun-96
Aug-96








Feb-05







Dec-00



Nov-05



Dec-00


Jan-00
May-99

May-99

Oct-98

Jun-05
Aug-98
Jun-99







Jan-05
Mar-97




Aug-96

 

Return to Top of Page

 

 

TIPS ON EMERGING EVALUATION TECHNOLOGIES:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 103
Tip 102
Tip 096
Tip 083
Tip 079
Tip 066
Tip 062
Tip 051
Tip 017
Trading Chaos: Applying Expert Techniques to Maximize Your Profits
"Neural Network Control System for Steam Injection"
"Evolving Inventions" by John Koza, Martin Keane and Matthew Streeter
Natural Language Processing (demonstration)
XBRL: eXtensible Business Reporting Language
"Swarm Smarts," Solving Complex Problems Using Ant Models
Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything by James Gleick
Neural Networks
Agent-Based Simulation
Dec-05
Sep-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Dec-00
Feb-00
Oct-99
Apr-99
Apr-97


Feb-05
Feb-05



Feb-05
Nov-05

 

Return to Top of Page

 

 

TIPS ON EVALUATION TECHNIQUES:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 109
Tip 106
Tip 101
Tip 099
Tip 098
Tip 085
Tip 084
Tip 082
Tip 081
Tip 080
Tip 079
Tip 077
Tip 076
Tip 075
Tip 068
Tip 067
Tip 065
Tip 064
Tip 061
Tip 058
Tip 056
Tip 050
Tip 049
Tip 047
Tip 046
Tip 045
Tip 037
Tip 036
Tip 029
Tip 028
Tip 027
Tip 026
Tip 025
Tip 023
Tip 022
Tip 017
Tip 014
Tip 013
Tip 012
Tip 005
Tip 004
Tip 003
Tip 002
Tip 001
EMV and Shareholder Value
Justifying Training with Performance Improvement
"Why Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Networks Can Mislead"
Model and Software Risks
Risk, Uncertainty and Investment Decision-Making in the Upstream O&G Industry
Cash Counts
"Tvalue" program for time value and amortization calculations
"iDecide" decision analysis tool (formerly Definitive Scenario)
"AI Trilogy" (software for predicting, classifying, and optimizing)
Conditional Cell Formatting in Excel
XBRL: eXtensible Business Reporting Language
Reverse Auctions
"Making Decisions with Precision" (optimization software)
Not "Estimating" Chance of Success
Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller
Dow 36,000 by Glassman and Hassett (includes Buffett reference)
Choice of Denominator in Investment Ranking Criterion
Calculate Return on Your Investment with Excel
Formatting Thousands and Millions in Excel
Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World
Risk Management: Concepts and Guidance by Carl Pritchard, Ed.
Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization by W. Winston
"Probabilistic Addition of Gas Reserves Within a Major Gas Project"
Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration
Number. of Combinations of Investment Alternatives
Competitive Bidding: Bid Fraction
"Repealing the Law of Averages"
Soft vs. Hard Problems
Monte Carlo Stopping Rule, Part 2 (see Tip 25)
"Definitive"s "Scenario" — Monte Carlo simulation tool
5-Steps in the Creative Process
Critical Chain
Monte Carlo Stopping Rule, Part 1 (see Tip 29)
Best Practices database
"Analytica" 1.1 for Windows
Agent-Based Simulation
Gradient Formula in Engineering Economics
"Creativity in OR/MS: Creativity-Enhancing Strategies" Interfaces
"PrecisionTree" Software
Restructuring Costs to Fudge the Numbers
Modeling for Learning Organizations
"@RISK" 3.5 for Excel 7.0
Making Hard Decisions by Robert Clemen
Correct Setup for HP-12c Calculators
Jan-06
Feb-05
Sep-05
Jul-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
Mar-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Oct-00
Apr-00
Mar-00
Feb-00
Jan-00
Oct-99
Jul-99
Jun-99
Mar-99
Mar-99
Feb-99
Jan-99
Dec-98
Mar-98
Mar-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Dec-97
Nov-97
Oct-97
Aug-97
Jul-97
Apr-97
Dec-96
Dec-96
Dec-96
Jun-96
Jun-96
May-96
Aug-96
Aug-96









Apr-05

Dec-00



Mar-00

Apr-05


Jan-05







Apr-00
Aug-99

Mar-00
Oct-97


Nov-05
Aug-99
Mar-97




Aug-96
Apr-05

 

Return to Top of Page

 

 

TIPS ON MARKETS AND TRADING:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 109
Tip 107
Tip 103
Tip 100
Tip 097
Tip 095
Tip 092
Tip 091
Tip 088
Tip 048
Tip 007
EMV and Shareholder Value
Our Final Hour: A Scientist"s Warning by Martin Rees
Trading Chaos: Applying Expert Techniques to Maximize Your Profits
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
"Portfolio Management: What is the Contribution to Shareholder Value?"
Markets, Mobs & Mayhemby Robert Menschel
More Warren Buffett books by Robert Hagstrom
Toward Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith
The Essential Buffett: Timeless Principles for the New Economy
"A Multifractal Walk down Wall Street"
A Random Walk Down Wall Street
Jan-06
Feb-05
Dec-05
Nov-05
Jun-05
Jan-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-05
Feb-99
Aug-96








Dec-05


 

Return to Top of Page

 

 

TIPS ON PROJECT MANAGEMENT:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 101
Tip 087
Tip 071
Tip 056
Tip 055
Tip 054
Tip 039
Tip 026
Tip 024
Tip 018
Tip 015
Tip 010
"Why Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Networks Can Mislead"
Benefit of project risk management, and three types of model variables
PMBOK® Guide, Project Management Body of Knowledge
Risk Management: Concepts and Guidance by Carl Pritchard, Ed.
Critical path concept is the key idea for a new drillship design
Practical Risk Assessment for Project Management by S. Gray
Project Management in the Fast Lane: Applying the Theory of Constraints
Critical Chain
Participative Management (OBM)
"Planning for Crises in Project Management" PMJ
Decision Analysis in Projects available
"Project Risks and Risk Allocation"
Sep-05
Oct-05
May-00
Jun-99
May-99
May-99
Aug-98
Nov-97
Aug-97
May-97
Jan-97
Sep-96


Oct-05
Jan-05
Dec-00


Mar-00


Jan-05

 

Return to Top of Page

 

 

TIPS ON STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 104
Tip 094
Tip 075
Tip 059
Tip 058
Tip 047
Tip 046
Tip 037
Tip 033
Tip 032
Tip 031
Tip 030
Tip 029
Tip 026
Tip 025
Tip 021
Tip 020
Tip 009
Tip 006
Geometric Mean and Harmonic Mean
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb
Not "Estimating" Chance of Success
Seeing Tomorrow: Rewriting the Rules of Risk
Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World
Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration
Number. of Combinations of Investment Alternatives
"Repealing the Law of Averages"
Answer to the "The Three Cards" Teaser Problem
Visual Revelations by Howard Wainer
Teaser Problem: "The Three Cards"
Improve Your Lottery Expected Value
Monte Carlo Stopping Rule, Part 2 (see Tip 25)
Critical Chain
Monte Carlo Stopping Rule, Part 1 (see Tip 29)
Switch Award Paradox
Why Flip a Coin: The Art and Science of Good Decisions
The Problem with Girls (See also Tip 31)
"The New Religion of Risk Management"
Jan-05
Oct-05
Oct-00
Sep-99
Jul-99
Feb-99
Jan-99
Mar-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Nov-97
Oct-97
Jul-97
Jul-97
Aug-96
Jul-96












Apr-00
Mar-00
Oct-97
Aug-97

Jan-98

 

Return to Top of Page

 

 

COMPLETE TIPS LIST:

 

Tip Topic Date Revised
Tip 109
Tip 108
Tip 107
Tip 106
Tip 105
Tip 104
Tip 103
Tip 102
Tip 101
Tip 100
Tip 099
Tip 098
Tip 097
Tip 096
Tip 095
Tip 094
Tip 093
Tip 092
Tip 091
Tip 090
Tip 089
Tip 088
Tip 087
Tip 086
Tip 085
Tip 084
Tip 083
Tip 082
Tip 081
Tip 080
Tip 079
Tip 078
Tip 077
Tip 076
Tip 075
Tip 074
Tip 073
Tip 072
Tip 071
Tip 070
Tip 069
Tip 068
Tip 067
Tip 066
Tip 065
Tip 064
Tip 063
Tip 062
Tip 061
Tip 060
Tip 059
Tip 058
Tip 057
Tip 056
Tip 055
Tip 054
Tip 053
Tip 052
Tip 051
Tip 050
Tip 049
Tip 048
Tip 047
Tip 046
Tip 045
Tip 044
Tip 043
Tip 042
Tip 041
Tip 040
Tip 039
Tip 038
Tip 037
Tip 036
Tip 035
Tip 034
Tip 033
Tip 032
Tip 031
Tip 030
Tip 029
Tip 028
Tip 027
Tip 026
Tip 025
Tip 024
Tip 023
Tip 022
Tip 021
Tip 020
Tip 019
Tip 018
Tip 017
Tip 016
Tip 015
Tip 014
Tip 013
Tip 012
Tip 011
Tip 010
Tip 009
Tip 008
Tip 007
Tip 006
Tip 005
Tip 004
Tip 003
Tip 002
Tip 001
EMV and Shareholder Value
Decision-making styles of women vs. men
Our Final Hour: A Scientist"s Warning by Martin Rees
Justifying Training with Performance Improvement
The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz
Geometric Mean and Harmonic Mean
Trading Chaos: Applying Expert Techniques to Maximize Your Profits
"Neural Network Control System for Steam Injection"
"Why Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Networks Can Mislead"
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Model and Software Risks
Risk, Uncertainty and Investment Decision-Making in the Upstream O&G Industry
"Portfolio Management: What is the Contribution to Shareholder Value?"
"Evolving Inventions" by John Koza, Martin Keane and Matthew Streeter
Markets, Mobs & Mayhemby Robert Menschel
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb
Jack: Straight from the Gut by Jack Welch
More Warren Buffett books by Robert Hagstrom
Toward Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith
John"s advice to young people for a great career and happy life
Good to Great by Jim Collins (exceptional business management book)
The Essential Buffett: Timeless Principles for the New Economy
Benefit of project risk management, and three types of model variables
"Why So Many People Made So Many Brain-Dead Investments"
Cash Counts
"Tvalue" program for time value and amortization calculations
Natural Language Processing (demonstration)
"iDecide" decision analysis tool (formerly Definitive Scenario)
"AI Trilogy" (software for predicting, classifying, and optimizing)
Conditional Cell Formatting in Excel
XBRL: eXtensible Business Reporting Language
"America, the beautiful carbon sink" by Peter Huber
Reverse Auctions
"Making Decisions with Precision" (optimization software)
Not "Estimating" Chance of Success
The Greatest Inventions of the Past 2,000 Years
Re-Creating the Corporation by Russell Ackoff
Managing by the Numbers by Chuck Kremer, et al.
PMBOK® Guide, Project Management Body of Knowledge
"Process Control with Intelligence: A Unified Approach"
"Lessons Learned Through Process Thinking and Review"
Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller
Dow 36,000 by Glassman and Hassett (includes Buffett reference)
"Swarm Smarts," Solving Complex Problems Using Ant Models
Choice of Denominator in Investment Ranking Criterion
Calculate Return on Your Investment with Excel
The Accidental Theorist by Paul Krugman
Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything by James Gleick
Formatting Thousands and Millions in Excel
PowerPoint: an Inferior Solution ... for me
Seeing Tomorrow: Rewriting the Rules of Risk
Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World
The McKinsey Way by Ethan Raisel
Risk Management: Concepts and Guidance by Carl Pritchard, Ed.
Critical path concept is the key idea for a new drillship design
Practical Risk Assessment for Project Management by S. Gray
The Ostrich Factor: Our Population Myopia
Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions
Neural Networks
Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization by W. Winston
"Probabilistic Addition of Gas Reserves Within a Major Gas Project"
"A Multifractal Walk down Wall Street"
Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration
Number. of Combinations of Investment Alternatives
Competitive Bidding: Bid Fraction
"The Perfect Decision", Inc. interview with Ralph Keeney et al.
The Enlightened Manager"s Guidebook by Abraham Maslow
"Management"s New Paradigms" by Peter Drucker
"Of Mice and Economics" -- People resist a major precept of economics
Billions & Billions by Carl Sagan
Project Management in the Fast Lane: Applying the Theory of Constraints
Company Value Added by OBM
"Repealing the Law of Averages"
Soft vs. Hard Problems
"The End of Cheap Oil"
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Answer to the "The Three Cards" Teaser Problem
Visual Revelations by Howard Wainer
Teaser Problem: "The Three Cards"
Improve Your Lottery Expected Value
Monte Carlo Stopping Rule, Part 2 (see Tip 25)
"Definitive"s "Scenario" — Monte Carlo simulation tool
5-Steps in the Creative Process
Critical Chain
Monte Carlo Stopping Rule, Part 1 (see Tip 29)
Participative Management (OBM)
Best Practices database
"Analytica" 1.1 for Windows
Switch Award Paradox
Why Flip a Coin: The Art and Science of Good Decisions
"Evaluation of Vision Correction Alternatives for Myopic Adults"
"Planning for Crises in Project Management" PMJ
Agent-Based Simulation
"Shareholders Aren’t Everything"; Built to Last; Three Cheers for Capitalism
Decision Analysis in Projects available
Gradient Formula in Engineering Economics
"Creativity in OR/MS: Creativity-Enhancing Strategies" Interfaces
"PrecisionTree" Software
Wise Choices: Decisions, Games, and Negotiations
"Project Risks and Risk Allocation"
The Problem with Girls (See also Tip 31)
The Ford Pinto Case: A Study in Applied Ethics, Business and Technology
A Random Walk Down Wall Street
"The New Religion of Risk Management"
Restructuring Costs to Fudge the Numbers
Modeling for Learning Organizations
"@RISK" 3.5 for Excel 7.0
Making Hard Decisions by Robert Clemen
Correct Setup for HP-12c Calculators
Jan-06
Nov-05
Feb-05
Feb-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-05
Sep-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jul-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Oct-05
Feb-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Jan-05
Jan-05
Dec-05
Oct-05
Aug-05
Jun-05
Mar-05
Mar-05
Mar-05
Feb-05
Jan-05
Dec-00
Dec-00
Nov-00
Oct-00
Oct-00
Jul-00
Jul-00
Jun-00
May-00
May-00
Apr-00
Apr-00
Mar-00
Feb-00
Feb-00
Jan-00
Nov-99
Oct-99
Oct-99
Sep-99
Sep-99
Jul-99
Jun-99
Jun-99
May-99
May-99
May-99
Apr-99
Apr-99
Mar-99
Mar-99
Feb-99
Feb-99
Jan-99
Dec-98
Oct-98
Oct-98
Sep-98
Aug-98
Aug-98
Aug-98
Jun-98
Mar-98
Mar-98
Mar-98
Feb-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Jan-98
Dec-97
Nov-97
Oct-97
Aug-97
Aug-97
Jul-97
Jul-97
Jul-97
May-97
May-97
Apr-97
Feb-97
Jan-97
Dec-96
Dec-96
Dec-96
Oct-96
Sep-96
Aug-96
Aug-96
Aug-96
Jul-96
Jun-96
Jun-96
May-96
Aug-96
Aug-96













Feb-05







Dec-05




Feb-05


Apr-05


Dec-00




Nov-05
Oct-05



Mar-00


Apr-05



Dec-00



Jan-05
Dec-00

Jan-00
May-99
Feb-05






May-99

Oct-98

Jun-05

Aug-98


Jun-99





Apr-00
Aug-99

Mar-00
Oct-97



Aug-97



Nov-05

Jan-05
Aug-99
Mar-97



Jan-98






Aug-96
Apr-05

 

Return to Top of Page

 

Copyright ™ 1996-2007 by John R. Schuyler.  All Rights Reserved.