"A good science and engineering decision is a good business decision."
Decision Precision training and consulting
The brochure and course descriptions are PDF files
Textbooks accompanying each OGCI course
Petroleum Risk and Economic Decision Analysis(Our flagship course) 4.5 or 5 days(PRD)
A popular course since launched in 1990. For technical professionals, analysts and managers. Probability and economic concepts for risk/cost/ benefit analyses. Focuses on decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Examples and exercises represent a wide range of petroleum industry problems. Class exercises are solved with hand calculators, but personal computer tools are discussed. Optionally can include additional days for more in-depth instruction in economic evaluation techniques and in the use of popular decision analysis software. No prerequisites other than general industry awareness and knowing how to use a hand calculator. Full Course Description
Applied Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling 4.5 or 5 days(ADA)
Hands-on modeling and more-advanced decision analysis practices. Excel modeling , Monte Carlo simulation (with Crystal Ball or @RISK) and decision tree analysis (with DATA or PrecisionTree). Portfolio concepts, optimization, and emerging decision technologies. This is intended as a sequel course to Petroleum Risk and Decision Analysis. Full Course Description
GENERAL INDUSTRY COURSES (offered to individual client organizations)
Decision Analysis Workshops up to 1 day
Overview of decision analysis for managers and project teams. Usually conducted in an informal seminar format. Often used as an introduction to using particular decision analysis software.
Decision Analysis Briefing for executives, 1/2 to 1 day
Discussion of the key concepts in probability, economic evaluation process, and decision policy. How to interpret and act upon the results of a decision analysis; questions to ask. Implementation issues. Light use of calculators to demonstrate concepts and calculations.
|Decision Analysis in
Projects 2 to 5 days.
Project Risks and Decision Analysis
Business Risks and Decision Analysis
|Featuring John's book:
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects
Semi-custom courses for project team members and evaluation professionals. Optional use of Crystal Ball or @RISK Monte Carlo simulation, or PrecisionTree or DATA decision tree software, for Excel. Course Description
Introduction to Decision Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation. 1-3 day class emphasizing Monte Carlo simulation with hands-on exercises in modeling in Excel (or 1-2-3) with @RISK or Crystal Ball.
Decision Games SM 1 day
Introduction to decision analysis: practical and powerful tools for making decisions under uncertainty. Expected value and present value concepts. Constructing and solving basic decision tree diagrams. The simple elegance of Monte Carlo simulation. Games and everyday problems allow participants to have fun while experiencing the shortcomings of intuition and the advantages of probability techniques.
Project Evaluation and Planning Assistance
Facilitating the project team evaluation. Also suitable for training a small group. This approach is suited to time-urgent situations where results and hands-on experience are needed quickly. Decision analysis concepts are explained along the way.
Feasibility studies, project and asset valuation. Assistance in corporate planning, mergers and acquisitions, and negotiation support. Expert testimony. Reviewing and tuning corporate decision policy.
Assistance in upgrading, designing and developing software for corporate planning and economic evaluation. Substantial library of program code and spreadsheet templates developed across the years. Potential assistance in modeling major projects, industries and markets, R&D and asset portfolios, competitive bids, reengineering projects, and other dynamic systems in business.
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