"A good science and engineering decision is a good business decision."


John Schuyler

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Selected Bibliography

Articles and Books by John Schuyler

What is the Value of Competency and Competency Assessment? Presented at SPE ATCE, Oct. 2013. Coauthored with J. Ford Brett and Timothy J. Nieman. Revised and republished in SPE Economics and Management, Jan. 2014. SPE 166308-PA.

Bid Optimization with Monte Carlo Simulation, Proceedings, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Dallas, Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE paper no. 130141, March 8-9, 2010

Optimizer’s Curse: Removing the Effect of this Bias in Portfolio Planning, with Tim Nieman, Proceedings, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, April 1-3, Dallas, Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE paper no. 107852. Revised and republished in the peer-reviewed SPE Projects, Facilities and Construction Journal, Mar. 2008.

Balanced Scorecard Linked to Shareholder Value: Making the Numbers Count, paper presented at the April 4-5, 2005, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium in Dallas, Texas.

Portfolio Management: What is the Contribution to Shareholder Value?, Proceedings (subsequently revised), SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, 5-8 April 2003.

Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 3.0 Edition, 2016, Planning Press, 411 p. plus online supplements.

Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration 3.0 edition, 2015, by Paul Newendorp and John Schuyler.

Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2000, continuing the series in PM Network with six new installments:

#13: "Exploiting the Best of Critical Chain and Monte Carlo Simulation," #14: "Optimizing Project Plan Decisions," #15: "Capturing Judgments About Risks and Uncertainties," #16: "Relating Risks," #17: "Project Risk Management—by the Numbers," and #18: "Expert Systems Guidance in Project Planning and Risk Management"

Decision Analysis Collection, 2007, Planning Press, Aurora CO, 372 p.
compilation of selected papers and articles, important concept summaries, and extensive glossary, 1989-2007; was available only with course materials.

"Probabilistic reserves definitions, practices need further refinement," 1999, Oil & Gas Journal, May 31, 1999, pp. 64-67. [OGJ6]

"Probabilistic Reserves Lead to More Accurate Assessments," 1998, Proceedings, SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, scheduled for New Orleans, Louisiana, Sep. 27-30 (cancelled due to Hurricane Georges). SPE paper no. 49032.  Submitted for peer review and possible publication in an SPE journal.  SPE Bookstore has a revised version of the paper. [ATC]

"Best Practices in Project Evaluation and Influence on Company Performance," 1997, Proceedings, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 16-18, Society of Petroleum Engineers, Dallas, SPE paper no. 37945. Revised and the featured management article in Journal of Petroleum Technology (JPT), August, 1997. [HEES4]

Petroleum Risk and Decision Analysis (course notebook), 1990-present, PetroSkills, LLC.

Also course notebooks for:

Economic Evaluation of Prospects and Producing Properties

Advanced Decision Analysis with Portfolio and Project Modeling

Business Risks and Decision Analysis

Introduction to Decision Analysis

"Investment Decision Making," 1997, chapter in Westney, Richard E., Ed., The Engineer's Cost Handbook, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York [ISBN 0-8247-9796-5, $125].

Decision Notes, annual newsletter, c. 1995-2000, Decision Precision®, Aurora, CO, each issue 4 pages. Current notes about decision analysis applications, literature and software.

"Decision Analysis in Projects," 1993-1995, invited tutorial series, PM NETWORK, monthly magazine of Project Management Institute, Upper Darby, PA..

    1. "Expected Value: the Cornerstone" Jan., p. 27-31 v7 n1.   2. "Optimal Decision Policy" Apr., p. 31-34 v7 n4.   3. "Decision Trees" Jul., p. 31-34 v7 n7.   4. "Value of Information" Oct., p. 19-23 v7 n10 1994.   5. "Monte Carlo Simulation" Jan., p. 30-36 v8 n1.    6. "Other Probabilistic Techniques" Apr., p. 20-24 v8 n4.    7. "Project Modeling I" Jul., p. 26-32 v8 n7.   8. "Project Modeling II" Oct., p. 39-43 v8 n10 1995.   9. "Judgments and Biases" Jan., p. 34-38 v9 n1.   10. "Utility and Multi-Criteria Decisions" Apr., p. 22-28 v9 n4.   11. "Stochastic Variance" Jul., p. 11-14 v9 n7.   12. "Summary and Recommendations" Oct., p. 23-28 v9 n10.

"Rational Is Practical: Better Evaluations through the Logic of Shareholder Value," 1995, Proceedings, SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, March 27-28, Society of Petroleum Engineers, Dallas, SPE paper no. 030066.  [HEES3]

"Slaying the Capital Budget Constraint," 1993, presented at Society of Petroleum Engineers' Hydrocarbon Economics & Evaluation Symposium, Proceedings, March 29-30, Dallas, Texas, pp. 219-228, SPE no. 25842. [HEES2]

"Credible Projections Now Require Decision Analysis," 1992, Cost Engineering, March, p. 15-19.

"Simulation Demonstrates Economics of Minnelusa Polymer Floods," 1991, with Steven M. Hochanadel, Oil & Gas Journal, v. 89, n. 21, May 27, p. 90-93.

"A new look... Decision Analysis Becomes a Powerful Tool," 1990, The Planning Forum Network, March, p. 2.

"Decision Rules Using the EMV Concept and Attitude Toward Risk: An Improved Approach," 1990, Oil & Gas Journal, Jan. 15, p. 55-58.

"Using a Simulation Model to Plan Property Acquisitions: Evaluation vs. Bid Practices," 1990, Oil & Gas Journal, Jan. 8, p. 78-81.

"How the Monte Carlo Pricing Model Beats the Odds," 1989, Journal of Pricing Management, v. 1, n. 1, Winter 1990, p. 15-24.

"Modeling an Exploration Program: Insensitivity to Prospect Ranking Criteria," 1989, Oil & Gas Journal, Dec. 25, p. 140-142.

"Applying Expected Monetary Value Concept: How Many Prospects is Enough?," 1989, Oil & Gas Journal, Dec. 11, p. 87-90.

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